ACC Foul Stats

Question

Just to follow up on my story about N.C. State

Answer 1

So the top 6 schools are all the Carolina schools Maryland?

Not surprising at all.

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by GUNNole.

Answer 2

Correlation does not equal causation...

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by jet06d.

Answer 3

Nice accumulation of data, and it does belie the NCSU claims, though it is true that the NC schools are all four in the top six. The problem with these numbers, while showing just what they sate about the number of fouls called, they don't address if the calls that were made were warranted and those that were not called were not fouls. Bias in officiating is more accurately affected by some measure of whether calls were made correctly, not the number of calls made.

Anybody that has watched our games with Duke, as example, over the last ten years or so can atest to the fact that Coach K's "excellence equity" is very much in play. Havn't heard about "excellence equity"? It's a term K uses to describe how UNC was always favorably treated by ACC refs with the idea that when you been consistentlly good it only makes sense officals will treat you more favorably. He was very expelict that he belives this is not only true but that is acceptable. Now to his credit, he went out and did what he needed to do, he created a team that was consistently good and they now receive this same "excelence equity" treatment. So according to Coach K, UNC has earned favorable treatment, and since his success at Duke, they have alsso earned favorable treatment. This was all shown in an ESPN show a while back, couple of years maybe, and it was audio and video of Coach K speaking, not just someone claiming this to be true.

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by AtlSFNole.

Answer 4

I would love to see foul stats broken down for the first 35 minutes vs the last 5 minutes. It's been noticed for a while that once the game is out of reach the refs start to do alot of make up calls so that we can sit here and say the fouls were even. I know i'm not the only one who noticed it in the NCSU game.

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by Garrett_TD23.

Answer 5

These numbers show the statistical help Duke has actually gotten in games from referees. Whether it is too much or too little is where the viewers own bias comes in. But there is no neutral observer going back over games and technically making every call. Could you imagine how all the fouls and calls would differ if all were done with slow motion, instant replay and 100% by the book. Yikes.

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by roshanritter.

Answer 6

Pretty reasonable assessment. I especially liked this line...

Looking at those numbers, it appears like the fans from Miami and Florida State have the biggest gripes about the ACC

Answer 7

Also, I would be really interested to know what the numbers would look like if you didn't take into account the end of game fouls. We have been the end of game fouler in 2 ACC games (VT in Tally and BC). As best I can recall, there have been a handful of games that we have been fouled at the end of the game (Miami, UVA, Duke, and VT at VT come to mind immediately and I think maybe it happened in the Maryland and GT games too). Take these FT's out of the equation and you'd see even more of a disparity against FSU.

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by Noledevil.

Answer 8

Garrett said, "I would love to see foul stats broken down for the first 35 minutes vs the last 5 minutes. It's been noticed for a while that once the game is out of reach the refs start to do alot of make up calls so that we can sit here and say the fouls were even. I know i'm not the only one who noticed it in the NCSU game."

I saw a study that showed officials tend to even up lopsided foul counts by calling more fouls against the team that has fewer. In fact, foul totals say nothing about the fairness of officiating, because some teams play rougher or more illegally than others. But fans will carry on about it, and apparently officials are embarrassed by lopsided totals. If officials do consciously or unconsciously tend to even out foul totals, obviously they are acting in favor of the team that does more illegal stuff.

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by Karmichael.

Answer 9

good point. ACC refs know who fouls more than others. Is there some inherent bias that play into that stat?

This post was edited on 2/21 4:45 PM by noledoc1

Link: refs paying attention to trends

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by noledoc1.

Answer 10

Teams 2-4 (Maryland, Clemson, NCSU) are all physical teams, so I'm surprised that they have a positive number of FT attempts compared to their opponents.....

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by DukeFan1.

Answer 11

1.North Carolina ? plus 69 free throws (5.8 more free throws a game than their opponents)
2.Maryland ? plus 52 (4.3 more FTs a game)
3.Clemson ? plus 34 (2.8 more FTs a game)
4.N. C. State ? plus 32 (2.7 more FTs a game)
5.Wake Forest ? plus 33 in 13 games (2.5 more FTs a game)
6.Duke ? plus 8 (.67 more FTs a game)
7. Boston College ? minus 11 in 13 games (.85 less FTs a game)
8.Florida State ? minus 31 (2.6 less FTs a game)
9.Virginia Tech ? minus 42 (3.5 less FTs a game)
10.Virginia ? minus 43 (3.6 less FTs a game)
11.Georgia Tech ? minus 50 (4.2 less FTs a game)
12.Miami ? minus 51 (4.3 less FTs a game)

The argument of bias in this comparison implicitly assumes that teams playing each other should shoot an equal number of FTs/game, on average, over the course of the season. That is simply not true. For example, %FTs made which we know vary by team would result in FT differences due to 1-and-1s. There are several other valid explanations. I hate to say it, but the science here is flawed. Please do not apply for that position at the CDC!

Originally posted on Seminole Hoops Talk by tallahasseejoe.