Seth Davis Mailbag, answers why he did not rank IU in top 25

Question

I have a question about Indiana: What do you do with a team that has beaten four top-25 teams (and three in the current top 11) earlier in the season but cools off considerably? Take Louisville, a team you had cracking the top 25 this week. Yes, they've won eight of their last 10 in the formidable Big East, but their best "win" in that stretch looks to be their one-point loss to Syracuse at home. Indiana's loss at Iowa was terrible, but how does that jibe with their wins over Nos. 1 and 2 (at the time) Kentucky and Ohio State? To be clear, I'm not saying I agree with or disagree with you, I'm just curious how you, as a pollster, handle early-season success vs. late-season fatigue.

-- Kyle Tennant, Chicago

This is an excellent question, and I have no answer except the usual fallback: It depends.

My basic job as an AP voter is to submit my list of who I think the top 25 teams are. Such subjective analysis should not be overly constrained by niggling details like final scores and won-loss records. Thus, I tend to weigh my vote more heavily on what has happened in the recent past -- which is why I dropped the Hoosiers, whose loss at Iowa dropped them to 8-7 in the Big Ten. Indiana's wins over Kentucky and Ohio State came at home, in December, by a total of five points. The Buckeyes waxed 'em by 17 points in Columbus. Arguing that Indiana's overall body of work merits a ranking is a lot easier than arguing that it is genuinely one of the 25 best teams in America right now.

When it comes to selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament, however, the men's basketball committee has tried to argue that all games should count exactly the same. The committee used to have a separate category of the last 10 games as part of its criteria. It increased that scope to 12 games but has since dropped the category altogether. Still, since these are actual human beings making these decisions, I don't believe they really treat every game the same. If a team is hot or cold down the stretch, that is likely going to influence someone's thinking.

Link: Full Link here

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by hartehanks.

Answer 1

side stepped the whole issue.

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by IURUT-formerly_kyrusty.

Answer 2

In reality, we should be ranked right around 19-20.

firm 5 seed with an opportunity to move up to a 4 with a W at Minnesota.

Beat MSU and Purdue next week, win 2-3 games in the BTT, and maybe a 3. (26 or 27-8). Obviously this scenario seems a long ways away from actually coming to fruition...but a W in the Barn on Sunday could do wonders for this team's confidence...we could really get our swagger back with a big road win ahead of two home games where AH will be absolutely INSANE.

I really don't think we will fall below a 5 seed this year.

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by hartehanks.

Answer 3

who cares what they think...

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by all4IU.

Answer 4

My case would be pretty simple.

Indiana is 5-5 in their last 10 with road losses to Nebraska and Iowa, which are 2 of the worst teams in the B1G. They're 0-3 in that stretch against top 25 teams. As a pollster, when a team loses, they drop. Indiana had dropped to below 20, they lost again to a poor team, and they dropped out. That's really the best answer.

But hey, there is no question that if a person looks at the season as a whole, IU has a strong case for a good seed (which is more important than ranking anyway). And barring a collapse down the stretch, I'd say IU has a good shot at a 5-seed, which would keep them from having to play a really great team until the Sweet 16.

This post was edited on 2/22 2:17 PM by IL Wildcat

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by IL Wildcat.

Answer 5

think that IU belongs in the top 25, the way they are playing! I may be totally off base, but it wouldn't surprise me if they lost the remaining Big Ten games and the first game of the Big Ten Tournament. If this happens, they don't deserve to be in the "Big Dance"!
It appears that IU is playing the way we expected they would, at the beginning of the season. Just another disappointing season for Tom Crean and the Hoosiers!

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by cmo1.

Answer 6

...they are extremely effective.

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by hartehanks.

Answer 7

and one of the best people in college ball.

Sorry, but he has zero credibility with me.

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by LaffyLives.

Answer 8

So how I don't think Crean would say anything any different either.

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by HoosierJJ.

Answer 9

If you're saying Crean would say the same thing about Weber, that's a little different than a "journalist" saying it.

Coaches tend to be respectful of others no matter what.

Someone like Seth should be more objective.

The fact he gives such high praise to Weber makes me not trust most of what he spews.

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by LaffyLives.

Answer 10

IU!!!!!!!!!!!

Originally posted on Peegs IU Hoop Forum by cmo1.